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Syracuse followed up a 22-point loss to Duke with an 18-point loss to Clemson, allowing the Tigers 14 made 3-pointers and a season-high 91 points. The Orange might have had a shot at making the National Invitation Tournament in a year with incremental improvements over last season’s sub-.500 campaign, but now might just be closing out the year working through the final kinks of a young team.

After possibly bursting onto the NCAA Tournament bubble following an upset to then-No. 23 NC State, the Orange have slipped out of position for any postseason play. Jesse Edwards has been shut down in the last two games, and the 2-3 zone defense has played the worst that it has all year. A win over Pittsburgh on the road, who sits at No. 53 in the NET rankings, could help it from slipping out of any bye in the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament. A loss would return the Orange to .500 in conference play for the first time since Jan. 30.

Here is everything you need to know about the Panthers (20-8, 13-4 ACC) before they take on Syracuse on Saturday.

All-time series

Syracuse leads 73-49.

Last time they played

Pittsburgh traveled to the JMA Wireless Dome in late December after SU had strung together a five-game winning streak to start ACC conference play. But after the first half, it looked as though the Orange were going to get rolled over by the Panthers, led by Nelly Cummings and Blake Hinson. Pittsburgh cracked open a 20-point lead at one point, pushed around Edwards inside the paint and limited Joe Girard III to an inconsistent shooting day, though he ended up scoring 16 points.

Then, the Orange came back, storming out of the halftime break and scoring 28 points in the final 10 minutes of the game. The once-lost conference game became a battle, as the Orange erased another sluggish start — a trademark of this year’s Syracuse team that has stuck around all season. But despite a final three minutes that featured SU tying the game and retaking the lead, though momentarily, Judah Mintz missed a contested 3-pointer and Quadir Copeland wasn’t able to gather the putback in time. It became — along with three other losses — an example of what if for Syracuse.

“I thought the last group played as hard as they could play,” Boeheim said after the loss. “We just had no effort from our forwards from the beginning.”

Kenpom odds

Pittsburgh has a 75% chance of winning, with a projected score of 77-70.

The Panthers report

Since beginning conference play, Pittsburgh’s largest loss came on the road against Duke, when it fell by nine points. It fell at home to Florida State toward the end of January, but has solidified itself as one of the top teams in the ACC, with a clear shot at an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. Head coach Jeff Capel’s veteran group has rolled through the conference, beating Miami, North Carolina twice and splitting the season series with Virginia. They continue, at the 41st-most efficient pace in college basketball, to knock down shots from all around the court and have held 10 ACC teams to less than 80 points.

Since their last meeting with the Orange, Jamarius Burton and John Hugley have taken over as the major contributors, leading the Panthers as shot creators alongside Hinson and Cummings. Pittsburgh has lost just three games at home this season and, after a 84-point performance against Syracuse last time the two met, the Panthers have the talent to bury SU just like Clemson did.

How Syracuse beats Pittsburgh

Syracuse is going to need to do something it hasn’t been able to do over the last two games: defend a variety of shooting threats. The formula for how to beat the 2-3 zone is out, and has been utilized extremely effectively by Clemson and Duke to the tune of two consecutive double-digit wins over the Orange. The Panthers have four players that can consistently get buckets from all over the court, and they don’t need to penetrate the teeth of the zone in order to be effective.

If Syracuse’s wings and forwards can press up on Pittsburgh’s guards and limit the space that the Tigers had from beyond the arc, it could force the Panthers to drive inside and get eaten up by Edwards. But Edwards also needs to play with more fire. He’s been pushed around, double teamed and rendered ineffective over the last two games. Once its opponent takes away Edwards, Syracuse struggles to find rebounds and points from other contributors.

Simply put, the Orange need to play way better than they have over the last two games. It’s likely they finish out the regular season on another losing streak if their forwards continue to flounder, they lose out on offensive rebounds and opposing playmakers and fire at will with plenty of space. Syracuse let Pittsburgh open up a 20-point lead last time they squared off, and with how ineffective it has been stopping second-chance points, that late game comeback likely won’t happen.

Stat to know: 36.9%

Pittsburgh nabs nearly 37% of its points from beyond the arc, which is the 30th-most distribution in the country. When Syracuse gives up 3-pointers — it’s allowed teams to make at least 10 3s 14 times this season — it tends to lead to a loss, at least a close finish against teams it should have put away. The Panthers, who shot 40.6% from deep the last time they played the Orange, are no stranger to collecting most of their points from long range. Even if Syracuse shifts its defense up and plays more of a 1-4 zone again, the Panthers should be able to consistently make 3s throughout the game, a trend that could lead to an easy win.

Player to watch: Jamarius Burton, guard, No. 11

Burton ended the first contest against the Orange with a relatively quiet nine points, five rebounds and seven assists. He was a playmaker, but quietly propped up Hinson, Cummings and Greg Elliot. Since then, and throughout the majority of conference play, the former Wichita State and Texas Tech guard has taken over, tracking with Mintz as they both become more involved as scorers for their respective teams. Burton went on to score double digits in 13 of the next 15 games, entering Saturday’s game averaging 15.6 points per game, 4.7 rebounds per game and 4.3 assists per game.

Published on February 24, 2023 at 9:18 pm

Contact Anthony: aalandt@syr.edu | @anthonyalandt