Return to: In the Paint 2023

Syracuse upset No. 23 NC State on Tuesday night, its first win over a ranked opponent in nearly two years. The Orange, fueled by a strong double-double performance from Jesse Edwards, staved off the Wolfpack and finally finished off a close Atlantic Coast Conference game, earning a signature Quad I win in the process. They follow up the win by welcoming Duke, one of their biggest opponents year in and year out since joining the conference.

This game will be the first without Hall of Fame coach Mike Krzyzewski, and the first time since February 2021 that both Duke and the Orange enter the game unranked. Syracuse is doing its patented late-season run in order to earn an NCAA Tournament spot. With three straight conference wins — two on the road and once against a ranked opponent — the Orange could notch a 10th conference win and jump all the way to No. 6 in the ACC with just four regular season games left.

Here is everything you need to know about the Blue Devils (18-8, 9-6 ACC) before they take on Syracuse.

All-time series

Duke leads 14-6.

Last time they played

After a commanding win in the first round of the ACC Tournament over Florida State, Syracuse took on No. 1-seed Duke in hopes of improving on a 25-point loss from earlier in the season. It played much better throughout the quarterfinals matchup against the Blue Devils, even entering halftime with a four-point lead, its season still alive. Jimmy Boeheim was in the midst of putting together a 28-point performance, and Joe Girard III was working on a 23-point game on 4-of-11 shooting from deep.

Symir Torrence even chipped in a career-high 11 assists. It had all the makings of a program-turning upset as it tried to turn the head up on a lost season that was going to be Buddy, Jimmy and Cole Swider’s last. Instead, the Orange allowed 52 points in the second half, and despite a comeback mounted by Syracuse, Duke scored the final 10 points of the game en route to an 88-79 win.

The Orange switched to a triangle and 2 defense in order to counteract the Blue Devil’s success shooting 3-pointers, but it wasn’t enough to stave off Duke.

“Coming in today, we tried — which we haven’t used in 24, 25 years — the triangle and two, which worked for a while,” head coach Jim Boeheim said after the loss. “(Duke’s) going to eventually get it. But I thought it gave us a little bit of an edge.”

Kenpom odds

Duke has a 54% chance of winning, with an expected score of 70-69.

The Blue Devil report

Duke, along with a number of other prominent Division-I basketball programs, is learning the difficulties of navigating without their head man for the first time in decades. Though first-year head coach Jon Scheyer is a Krzyzewski disciple, the Blue Devils lost Paolo Banchero, Wendell Moore, Trevor Keels and AJ Griffin. They enter Saturday night with an 18-8 record and are currently sixth in the ACC standings. They’re led by Jeremy Roach and freshman phenom Kyle Filipowski, but are a much deeper team than the Orange.

Duke got out to a characteristic 9-2 start in nonconference play, falling only to Kansas and Purdue. In conference games, they’ve compiled a 9-6 record, with embarrassing losses to NC State and Miami, both by double digits. Though there have been close losses as well to Virginia Tech and Virginia, the Blue Devils have had a hard time differentiating themselves from a slog of an ACC conference schedule.

Duke is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, with an offensive rebounding rate of 37.3%, but has struggled shooting — especially from beyond the arc. The Blue Devils score the ninth-most points in the conference, but allow the second-fewest (64.3 points per game) this season.

How Syracuse beats Duke

Edwards arguably completed his best performance of the season, possibly even of his career, against NC State. Wolfpack forward D.J. Burns looked to be a formidable matchup for Edwards, who has struggled against conference forwards and frequently gotten into foul trouble this season despite continuing to average a double-double and leading the ACC in blocks. But Edwards stood tall and instead forced Burns to foul out, while himself scoring 18 points and grabbing 16 rebounds.

If Edwards can mitigate the effects of Filipowski, the Orange have a solid chance of winning over Duke for the first time since Jan. 14, 2019. The Blue Devils aren’t the most prolific scoring team Syracuse has faced this season, and it might mean having to double team Filipowski.

Offensively, Girard needs to step up. If there’s any time to end his cold streak, it’s Saturday evening’s game. He needs to complement the Orange’s offense, one that, when working well, can see significant scoring games from Edwards, Judah Mintz and Maliq Brown. If both of those things happen, Syracuse should hang with Duke. It’s going to need to keep pace with the Blue Devil’s deep bench as well, and might need contributions from players like Justin Taylor or Quadir Copeland.

Stat to know: 37.3%

The Orange have struggled mitigating offensive rebounds throughout the season, in part why they’ve had such a tumultuous road to February. They have been outrebounded by teams 12 times this season, many games in which they ultimately lost. The issue for Syracuse is that it has allowed an offensive rebound, been slow getting back on defense and allowed a second-chance bucket. It can’t survive against the Blue Devils if it allows a ton of offensive rebounds.

Duke is grabbing rebounds on the offensive end on 37.3% of possessions. Filipowski is averaging 9.1 rebounds per game, and Ryan Young has an offensive rebounding rate of 15.4%, which ranks 16th in the country, per KenPom. Edwards is going to have his work cut out for him against that two-headed rebounding monster, and the Orange are going to need help from their forwards on the boards.

Player to watch: Kyle Filipowski, center, No. 30

Duke’s 7-foot freshman from Westtown, New York, has been playing as advertised. He was named to the preseason watch list and Top 10 list for the Karl Malone Power Forward of the Year Award. Since, he has been named to the Wooden Award and Naismith Player of the Year watchlists. He was dinged up against Virginia, but returned to help the Blue Devils overcome Notre Dame on Tuesday night. Filipowski is averaging 15.1 points per game and 9.1 rebounds per game, outpacing Edwards and gaining more recognition underneath the basket. According to KenPom, Filipowski is Duke’s sole “go-to guy” and he’s sure to be the catalyst for any run the Blue Devils hope to have against Syracuse.

Published on February 15, 2023 at 10:42 pm

Contact Anthony: aalandt@syr.edu | @anthonyalandt